Global Aircraft Sales - After five years of growth and profitability, the airline industry is entering a decade of uncertainty and, at least for the first two to three years, under severe financial pressure. According to the International Air Transport Association, with COVID-19 sweeping the world, the industry in 2020 lost more than 118 billion
2021 is unlikely to be much different. Except for Chinese airlines, which until 2020 in November domestic traffic has returned to pre-pandemic levels, global carriers will still spend millions in cash every day for most of the year, but probably not all of it. Some will face the daunting prospect of restructuring and consolidation. Tens of billions of dollars in losses are expected again this year, although the industry will take less than half the hit it did in the first year of COVID-19.
Global Aircraft Sales
This means cash savings will remain a top priority for airlines, which is not good news for aerospace manufacturers and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) suppliers. in 2020 pressure on airline cash flows from COVID-19 and reduced demand for air travel have forced global carriers to store thousands of aircraft, shut down twice as many as usual, replace some with freighters and cancel or delay the delivery of some new aircraft. airplane. .
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At its lowest point, the global fleet was only about 13,000 aircraft, less than half of the number of flights in 2020. in January before the pandemic was declared. Today in the fleet until 2021. there are more than 23,700 aircraft. We predict that by 2031 the fleet will have more than 36,500 units. However, this is still a long way from pre-Covid-19 forecasts, which had the global fleet in 2021. reached 28,800, and in 2030 - more than 39,000.
This outlook for aviation emerges from Oliver Wyman's Global Fleet and Maintenance Forecast 2021-2031. The 10-year forecast period starts slowly, with growth accelerating in 2022. in the second half, when in 2020 month of January. However, none of the three segments — airlines, aerospace and maintenance — are expected to reach the COVID-19 projections by the end of the 10-year period.
Given the backlog of new aircraft built but not yet delivered or sold, more aircraft will be delivered to airlines over the next few years than will be produced by aerospace manufacturers. While production and supply are closely aligned in a typical year, the imbalance reflects the conflicting pressures on airframe manufacturers to balance the realities of lower market demand with the needs of key suppliers to maintain sufficient production.
Other revenues from the aerospace industry may also be at risk. The early retirement of aircraft can reduce sales of new parts to the aerospace industry due to increased competition as the supply of used components and engines that have been used to retire aircraft has increased dramatically. It will take up to three years to dispose of the surplus of usable material.
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For maintenance companies, a smaller fleet means less work. In 2020 and 2021, demand is expected to grow by 33 percent, or $60 billion. USD below overall pre-Covid-19 forecast. Although the market is starting to recover, the long-term upward trend in GRO is now about half ahead of Covid-19 expectations. Total maintenance and repair demand is expected to decline by $95 billion over the forecast period. USD.
Despite the lower GRO expectations, the sector is forecast to grow by 3 percent annually in 2019-2031. The combination of short-term demand weakness and long-term growth prospects has created an attractive environment for private investors, and interest in GRO is high.
The popularity of narrow-body aircraft is also increasing. Over the years, the share of narrow-body aircraft in the total fleet has increased, as the improved range and attractive passenger-kilometer efficiency of this class have made this aircraft the choice of low-cost carriers. This trend is expected to continue as more airlines adjust their fleets to real-world demand related to COVID-19.
Although the forecasts for the production of narrow-body aircraft in 2021 are 40 percent lower than in 2018, we expect the aircraft class to recover over 10 percent in the final years of the forecast period compared to our original pre-COVID forecast. A highlight was sales of the A321LR, which remain strong even during the pandemic. The aircraft offers enough range to serve routes previously flown by Boeing 757s or wide-body aircraft, and gives airlines more scheduling flexibility.
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The delivery of narrow-body aircraft in 2021 will also be boosted by the decisions of the Federal Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency to re-certify the Boeing 737 MAX for commercial use. More than 20 737s have already returned to the carrier's fleet after recertification, but there are still between 400 and 450 MAX planes built in 2020 in Boeing's inventory without delivery or unsold. In addition, the number of narrow-body aircraft in the fleet will be increased by nearly 400 737s, which the airlines have kept since the 2019 March.
In contrast, production of wide-body aircraft has declined significantly due to the impact of COVID-19 on long-haul demand. Over the forecast period, we expect large-scale production to be 40 percent below the pre-COVID-19 forecast, unless long-haul recovers faster than expected.
COVID has created a long list of challenges not seen in modern commercial aviation. It will take the next few years for the fleet to adapt to new realities and return to stable growth. Even in 10 years, the industry will not be able to fully recover everything it lost due to the pandemic.
International travel, which accounts for the majority of long-haul shipments, was disrupted by the onset of COVID-19 and continues to be severely affected, affecting the wide format. Over the past year, countries around the world have tightened restrictions on cross-border travel in an effort to prevent, or at least contain, the pandemic. Border closures and sudden 14-day quarantine requirements are hampering travel between the countries, leaving travelers fearful of being stranded or unable to return home. President Joe Biden's new executive order requires travelers to the United States to provide proof of a recent negative test for COVID-19 prior to arrival, a requirement already in place in some other countries.
Bombardier Global Express Recently Sold
The decline in long-haul international travel was driven by a decline in business travel, the airline's most profitable category. This is especially true on long-haul flights, where managers often choose premium seats.
Video conferencing and teleconferencing have become attractive substitutes for companies to reduce travel budgets, especially in-house travel. COVID-19 has also forced many business conferences and trade shows to go virtual or be canceled entirely, eliminating another reason for executive travel. While most of these trips will eventually recover as more people get vaccinated against COVID-19, they are unlikely to fully recover in the medium term.
Meanwhile, some of the latest models of the regional jet class are years behind schedule as the new platforms face development challenges and US pilot contract terms limit their use. As many regional aircraft reach their typical retirement age or accumulate service over the forecast period, we expect many to exceed historical limits to meet some of the demand for smaller commercial aircraft.
It's safe to say that modern commercial aviation has never faced such a long list of challenges as COVID-19. It will probably take several years for the fleet to adapt to the new realities, and even then the industry will not be able to recoup everything it lost due to the pandemic in the next 10 years.
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Our published commentary on the global fleet and maintenance market forecast 2021-2031. demonstrates over two decades of commitment to understanding and evaluating the commercial air carrier fleet and the associated Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) market outlook. This commentary is a resource for aviation industry executives, whether they are manufacturers, operators or aftermarket service providers, as well as those with financial interests in the sector through private equity firms and investment banks.
This year's study focuses on the aviation industry's recovery from COVID-19, continued growth and related trends affecting aftermarket demand, maintenance costs, technology and labor supply following the disruptive 2020s. The forecast shows the significant challenges the industry faces in developing and expanding recovery and recovery plans.
The fleet and maintenance outlook featured prominently in our latest presentation on maintenance and repair trends and forecasts in the Americas. The full presentation can be found on our event page. Thank you! Your request has been received. An account manager will contact you shortly. Please check your spam/ads folder if you don't hear from us soon.
In production since 1998, the Global Express has influenced the ultra-long-haul business jet market. With a flight time of up to 12 hours, aviators who need more range and more cargo capacity will look to the Global Express for sale, one of Bombardier's premium offerings.
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Global Express can carry 13 passengers and 2 crew members. The aircraft has a lavatory at the rear of the nearly 50-foot-long cabin inside the 100-foot-long fuselage. The front doors are more than 6 feet high and can accommodate a lot of passengers.
Shared cabin
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